If you use natural gas to heat your home, you should budget for your natural gas bill to be 4-9% higher for winter 2026 vs. winter 2025. That’s from national forecasts, based on energy costs and weather projections. In this article we discuss natural gas price trends and the winter weather forecast, plus how to keep your heating bill low.
Key Takeaways
National forecasts indicate heating bills will be up 4-8% this winter due to increased cold and higher energy costs.
- NEADA (National Energy Assistance Directors Association) projects natural gas heating costs will be up 8.4% from the 2024/2025 winter season
- EIA (Energy Information Administration) projects natural gas heating costs will be up 4% this winter vs. the prior winter season,
- Consumers can save on their natural gas heating bill through energy efficiency and securing the lowest available natural gas rate, if they live in a deregulated energy state.
Natural Gas Heating Cost Forecasts for Winter 2025/2026
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes consistent energy studies and forecasts each year, including a Winter Heating Outlook each October. This year, they updated that forecast in mid-December to reflect colder than expected temperatures. Their initial forecast expected natural gas heating costs to rise by just 1%. Their adjusted forecast projects a 4% increase in heating costs.
Additionally, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, a group ofstate directors for the federal low-income heating assistance program, projects natural gas heating costs will be up 8.4% from the 2024/2025 winter season, according to their December 16, 2025 news release.
Both sources cite two factors in their forecasts: increased natural gas costs and colder temperatures.
Wholesale Natural Gas Costs are Up 60% vs. Last Year
Wholesale natural gas prices in 2025 were up 60% from 2024’s historic lows, according to market analyst FinancialContent. That’s based on the 2024 average market price of $2.19 per million BTU vs. $3.53.
The graph below, based on data from the EIA, illustrates this natural gas cost increase.
Natural Gas up 60% but Natural Gas bills up 4-8%? 🤔 Show me the math!
So, if natural gas costs are 60% year over year, why will natural gas bills only rise 4-8% vs. last year? It’s because of how utility companies and suppliers buy natural gas for their customers.
In most states, utility companies procure natural gas for their customers and deliver it to their homes or businesses. These utility companies buy natural gas supply through procurement auctions for large groups of customers at a time. They then adjust your natural gas rate based on this auction cost plus any additional natural gas supply they have to buy on the spot market. You may see this on your gas bill as a fuel surcharge. The result is a blended average cost of natural gas appearing on your bill.
Some states, like Ohio, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, have deregulated their natural gas supply. Consumers can choose to buy natural gas from the local utility, or they can choose a natural gas supplier, with the utility handling delivery. These deregulated suppliers can purchase natural gas contracts in the forward markets, securing possible savings and price security for their customers. Because these contracts are forward-looking, they reflect future expectations of price, rather than current pricing or past procurement aucations.
Consumers in deregulated markets can shop for fixed rate natural gas plans. This protects them against the risk of price increases in the future, removing the ups and downs of typical utility pricing.
Winter Weather Outlook for 2025-2026
Weather conditions are the second factor impacting natural gas bills. Luckily, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that winter 2025/26 temperatures will be at or above normal temperatures for the season. That will help to moderate the impact of higher fuel costs.
Save on Your Heating Bill This Year
Now that you know that your winter heating costs could rise, what do you do about it? Here are 4 quick ways to keep your winter natural gas bill lower:
- If you live in a state where natural gas is deregulated, like Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Michigan, lock in a fixed rate natural gas plan. This can help protect you against rising prices.
- Perform a DIY home energy audit to find and fix places where heat is leaking out of your home.
- Follow recommended thermostat settings for winter. During the day, keep the thermostat between 65° and 68°. When you are away, drop the thermostat to 60°. And at night, keep the setting around 65°.
- Dress for the outside weather inside. If it’s cold out, wear sweaters, socks and shoes inside to stay warm.
With these tips and conscious efforts to conserve energy at home, you can keep your winter heating bill in check this season.
