If you use natural gas to heat your home, you should budget for your natural gas bill to be 4-9% higher for winter 2026 vs. winter 2025. That’s from national forecasts, based on energy costs and weather projections. In this article we discuss natural gas price trends and the winter weather forecast, plus how to keep your heating bill low.
Key Takeaways
National forecasts indicate heating bills will be up 4-8% this winter due to increased cold and higher energy costs.
- NEADA (National Energy Assistance Directors Association) projects natural gas heating costs will be up 5.8% from the 2025/2026 winter season
- EIA (Energy Information Administration) projects natural gas heating costs will be up 8% this winter vs. the prior winter season,
- Consumers can save on their natural gas heating bill through energy efficiency and securing the lowest available natural gas rate, if they live in a deregulated energy state.
Natural Gas Heating Cost Forecasts for Winter 2025/2026
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes consistent energy studies and forecasts each year, with their initial September short-term outlook projecting 8% higher natural gas heating costs vs. last winter.
Additionally, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, a group of state directors for the federal low-income heating assistance program, projects natural gas heating costs will be up 5.8% from the 2025/2026 winter season.
Wholesale Costs Expected to be Lower this Winter
The EIA projects that natural gas rates will be lower than in Winter 2025/2026, when Winter Storm Fern pushed natural gas prices to historic highs.
Winter Weather Outlook for 2026-27
After cost per unit of gas, weather conditions are the second biggest factor impacting natural gas bills. Luckily, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that winter 2026-2027 temperatures will be at or above normal temperatures for the season. That will help to moderate the impact of higher fuel costs, and could leave us with overall bills flat versus last year.
Save on Your Heating Bill This Year
Now that you know that your winter heating costs could rise, what do you do about it? Here are 4 quick ways to keep your winter natural gas bill lower:
- If you live in a state where natural gas is deregulated, like Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Michigan, lock in a fixed rate natural gas plan. This can help protect you against rising prices.
- Perform a DIY home energy audit to find and fix places where heat is leaking out of your home.
- Follow recommended thermostat settings for winter. During the day, keep the thermostat between 65° and 68°. When you are away, drop the thermostat to 60°. And at night, keep the setting around 65°.
- Dress for the outside weather inside. If it’s cold out, wear sweaters, socks and shoes inside to stay warm.
With these tips and conscious efforts to conserve energy at home, you can keep your winter heating bill in check this season.
